8 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1526
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pagac
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1546
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Kasnik stays under total as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H11-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.