8 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1421
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.921964
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1384
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Madle🌟1964 rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (22)
Fair odds · 1964
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.