8 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1546
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pagac
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1520
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H49-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.