8 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Matej Volf
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Just
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1548
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Just
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.