8 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skotnica
ELO 1573
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Grundel
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1589
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Grundel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H7-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.