8 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1509
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kratochvil
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1556
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kratochvil
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.