8 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1521
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Steffan
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1465
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 75% (28)
Fair odds · Steffan
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H30-69
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.