8 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1520
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chalupa
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1509
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (19)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.