8 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1509
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pagac
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1546
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.