8 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Petr Saleny
ELO 1554
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1568
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H11-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.