9 Jul · 00:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1458
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Bartunek
RB
🇨🇿Radek Bartunek
ELO 1539
FormLLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 72% (29)
Fair odds · Bartunek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+81
H2H14-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.