9 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇨🇿Alexander Mikuska
ELO 1519
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kucirek
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kucirek
ELO 1534
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kucirek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.