9 Jul · 03:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Bayer
KB
🇨🇿Karel Brozhik
ELO 1545
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Brozhik stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H16-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.