9 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1568
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Bayer covers set handicap as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H21-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.