8 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1567
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sychra
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1602
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Regner
Fair odds · Sychra
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H29-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.