9 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1379
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stefek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1409
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H9-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.