9 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1426
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Varecha
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1470
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🌟Mikula stays under total as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.