9 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bayer
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1529
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.28· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H12-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.