9 Jul · 01:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1529
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sopko
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1572
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Sopko stays under total as favourite 64% (22)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.