10 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jaroslav Prokupek
ELO 1499
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Prokupek
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1460
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Parhomenko
Fair odds · Prokupek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H23-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.