10 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1335
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Forman
LF
🇨🇿Lubos Forman
ELO 1341
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Forman stays under total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Forman
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.