10 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1560
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sebera
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1537
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 63% (81)
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H18-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.