11 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1360
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tuma
MT
🇨🇿Miroslav Tuma
ELO 1464
FormWLWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+104
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)