12 Jul · 02:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿Dmytro Opanasiuk
ELO 1606
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zahradka
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1645
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Opanasiuk🌟Zahradka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (77)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.