11 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1332
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smesny
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1367
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (37)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.