11 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Machander
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1548
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Martinak🌟Martinak covers set handicap as underdog 79% (24)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.