11 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1602
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Navedla
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1549
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kratochvil🌟Navedla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (54)
Fair odds · Navedla
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H5-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.