11 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1569
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sopko
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1517
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 62% (87)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.