11 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LJ
🇨🇿Libor Jemelka
ELO 1444
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Milkov
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Milkov
ELO 1462
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Jemelka stays under total as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Milkov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.