11 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Milan Kolar
ELO 1544
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolar
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1496
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Horak🌟Horak covers set handicap as underdog 66% (29)
Fair odds · Kolar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H28-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.