11 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Navedla
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1602
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tomica🌟Tomica covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Navedla
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.