11 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skacelik
RS
🇨🇿Richard Skacelik
ELO 1595
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machander🌟Skacelik goes over total as favourite 68% (40)
Fair odds · Skacelik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H23-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.