11 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1635
FormWWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Paril
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1637
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Paril🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (145)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H13-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.