11 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1614
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Grundel
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1602
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 69% (118)
Fair odds · Grundel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H19-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.