11 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tomica
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Tomica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 8% (13)
Fair odds · Tomica
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.