11 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1352
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Berdych
LH
🇨🇿Leos Havrda
ELO 1310
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Havrda stays under total as underdog 63% (54)
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H20-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.