11 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1367
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Smesny
JM
🇨🇿Jaroslav Martinek
ELO 1361
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (37)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.