11 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1609
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wawrosz
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1580
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (125)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.