11 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1609
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paril
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1637
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wawrosz🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (145)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H14-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.