11 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1569
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sopko
FP
🇨🇿Frantisek Pusch
ELO 1515
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.