11 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1608
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pikous
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1588
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pikous
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H29-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.