11 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1637
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paril
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1580
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (145)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H13-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.