11 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Grundel
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1614
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Grundel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (43)
Fair odds · Grundel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+80
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.