11 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇨🇿Leos Havrda
ELO 1310
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Havrda
JC
🇨🇿Jaromir Cernik
ELO 1278
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Havrda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H19-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.