11 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jaroslav Martinek
ELO 1361
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Martinek
JC
🇨🇿Jaromir Cernik
ELO 1278
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Martinek stays under total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Martinek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+83
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.