11 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1580
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cabis
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1635
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Cabis rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (99)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.