11 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jaroslav Martinek
ELO 1361
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Martinek
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1332
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Martinek stays under total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Martinek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.