11 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FP
🇨🇿Frantisek Pusch
ELO 1515
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pusch
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1511
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pusch
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.