11 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1511
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pusch
FP
🇨🇿Frantisek Pusch
ELO 1515
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pusch
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.