11 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1569
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sopko
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1511
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.